Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 82035.699957 86579.965311 91120.483654 95994.416686 101074.829200 106211.040832 111792.805974
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 74657.753515 81625.514144 88780.053198 96665.194738 105101.220023 113845.608124 123584.304123
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 68989.772417 77583.381619 86600.188340 96745.186828 107819.971117 119521.159375 132796.975759
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 65433.679955 75329.387166 85899.883562 97996.136625 111419.037822 125821.159258 142405.323322
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 61512.498316 72323.688858 84058.581814 97690.821730 113038.019160 129727.986861 149195.565721
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 59333.849654 71062.906396 83973.362070 99168.046854 116488.030855 135541.485544 158010.383746
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57109.392969 69585.384108 83497.300007 100068.581906 119173.862661 140412.856361 165708.604118
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 54636.252321 67675.757902 82396.853262 100132.708349 120800.917072 144004.194888 171895.993756
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52281.427187 65782.646298 81205.119863 99986.968042 122095.712936 147145.352256 177516.874505
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51215.184930 65347.542141 81660.234641 101715.893627 125534.053833 152738.356659 185970.627995
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50225.318493 64943.083085 82100.677663 103385.489948 128874.963442 158208.458138 194293.615624
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 48814.530715 63961.458183 81794.085912 104113.790513 131062.902022 162306.333015 201005.140949
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47020.741371 62471.285905 80849.073506 104064.246654 132333.321119 165357.419444 206550.093691
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 45582.740746 61371.857189 80337.744418 104507.183086 134175.928616 169085.162859 212918.072933
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44027.746980 60067.427296 79522.817618 104531.911955 135474.974427 172140.743581 218477.140593
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43198.804951 59646.921913 79774.039840 105849.188384 138340.596659 177083.797916 226327.537267
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 41641.856490 58239.154720 78740.448342 105521.441591 139143.615949 179501.915806 231109.338768
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41051.554120 58055.985148 79231.611142 107091.894291 142295.132670 184791.860989 239414.760146
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40220.028092 57525.719116 79254.529136 108049.376479 144669.804871 189129.509920 246570.762253
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39039.832586 56496.771749 78603.275478 108117.531384 145903.870518 192047.651430 251979.994237
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 37822.148111 55379.613615 77803.132555 107962.551793 146830.122046 194568.139303 256893.399911
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37505.679687 55458.470162 78550.464562 109800.818514 150295.458734 200269.599419 265794.540014
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37180.710423 55510.578814 79252.304547 111575.645406 153684.518189 205891.900766 274629.866224